Why bond yields are high - Livemint
Originally Answered: Why do government bond yields decline when RBI cuts repo rates? You know bond yield is nothing but interest earned on bond's face. It follows that higher bond yields are bad for stocks. and s, the relationship seemed firm; armed with the Fed Model, Quite apart from encouraging investors to switch from stocks to bonds, rising interest rates also make it harder to enjoyed a euphoric surge following the cut in US corporate tax. These two factors affect how much value a bond has. Interest rates, bond yields (prices) and inflation expectations have a correlation to each other.
Deposit rates of most banks have come down by around 50 basis points. There are many reasons behind the slow transmission of the policy rate cut.
One of them is that a cut in the deposit rate does not translate into immediate reduction in the cost of money for banks, as depositors continue to earn higher rates till their deposits mature but when loan rates are pared, old loans, too, are re-priced. Typically, banks are faster in cutting their deposit rates than their loan rates, as they are always keen to protect their net interest rate margin.
The Competition Commission of India is looking into whether banks have formed a cartel to keep the savings rate uniform. The scenario is unlikely to change unless we have more banks.
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The arrival of small business banks and payments banks may bring in a semblance of competition. As long as banking licence remains a precious commodity, existing banks will not be sensitive to the needs of the saving community or borrowers.
Many fear that the OMO will lead to a rise in bond yields as supply will outstrip demand. On 15 January, the date of the first rate cut in this phase, the yield on the year government bond dropped from 7. The yield is around 7.
Does this mean rate cuts have no impact on the bond market? It will be unfair to say so.
Indeed, yields are still higher than the level seen after the January cut, but they are down from the December level when RBI gave guidance of a rate cut. In Julythe year yield was close to 8. It was around 8. Clearly, the market had moved ahead of RBI.
At this point, the market is at best factoring in one more rate cut by December. Usually, in India, the spread between the policy rate and the yield on year paper is very low, but that could probably be undergoing a correction now. This is why bond yields rose — investor fears rising debt levels could not be financed.Here’s How Rising Interest Rates Will Affect the Stock, Bond and Housing Markets
Since this period, bond yields in Spain and Italy fell because the ECB has become more willing to intervene in the bond market. Between andthe UK has seen: A persistent recession — with poor prospects for economic growth 2. An increase in the savings ratio Therefore, the rise in savings and negative growth have caused higher demand for bonds 3. Higher government Borrowing UK debt The UK is a good example of how low economic growth and high savings can lead to lower bond yields.
During great recession Higher debt in the UK led to lower bond yields When there are poor prospects for growth, individuals and firms prefer to save. They are nervous about investing in risky private sector investment projects.
Therefore, rather than take risks, they save. Because people are wanting to save, there is increased demand for government bond yields.
How does rise/fall in repo rates impact Bond yields? - nickchinlund.info
The increase in demand pushes up the price and reduces the bond yield. Therefore, the stock market tends to give a poorer return than usual. Therefore, in a recession bonds look relatively more attractive than usual. A key factor is the level of private savings.
The high level of domestic savings means there is strong demand for Japanese government bonds. The UK has benefited from uncertainty in the Eurozone. Because investors are nervous about bond yields in southern Europe, this has caused people to sell Spanish bonds and take the relative security of UK bonds. Quantitative easing has involved creating money and buying bonds. Sincethe US has seen a fall in long-term bond yields.
This is partly due to the poor economic growth in the US and relative increase in private sector savings. We are in a liquidity trap where demand for saving is quite high, despite low-interest rates.
How does rise/fall in repo rates impact Bond yields?
If the US economy showed signs of a strong economic recovery, you would expect bond yields to rise. This is because, with prospects of economic recovery, investors would move out of bonds and into potentially more profitable areas like stocks, shares and private investment.
Why do Italy and Spain have higher bond yields when they face the prospect of recession too? Investors have little confidence in Italy and Spain. This is primarily because they are borrowing in Euros and have no independent Central bank who can act as lender of last resort. Markets fear default in Spain and Italy because of the dynamics of the Single Market. In the case of Spain and Greece, the recession could increase the likelihood of default.